Conservative Jo Gideon's victory in Stoke-on-Trent Central was perhaps the biggest upset locally in the 2019 general election.

The Tories' win in the seat which had been held by Labour since its creation in 1950 was a prime example of the so-called Red Wall collapsing across the North and Midlands.

Due to its demographics and high levels of deprivation, Stoke-on-Trent Central should naturally have the highest Labour vote share of any seat in Staffordshire. So the fact that the party still lost there in 2019 – albeit by just 670 votes – demonstrated the scale of Labour's defeat nationally. But with Labour now enjoying a significant lead in the polls, Stoke-on-Trent Central should be a seat to win back.

Conservative's Jo Gideon has been the MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central since 2019, but will not be standing this year (Image supplied).

Ms Gideon announced that she would not be seeking re-election, and has subsequently accused local Tory officials of bullying her and fostering a 'toxic' environment. City councillor and Goldenhill GP Dr Chandra Kanneganti was selected as the new Conservative candidate. He will face Labour's Gareth Snell, who will be looking to return to Parliament, having previously served as Stoke-on-Trent Central's MP between 2017 and 2019.

The typically crowded field in Stoke-on-Trent Central also includes candidates from Reform UK, the Lib Dems and the Green Party, along with three independents.

Following the 2019 election, Stoke-on-Trent Central has been among the Red Wall seats in 'left behind' areas which have been allocated millions of pounds in levelling up grants. This has included support for regeneration projects such as the Goods Yard in Stoke and Etruscan Square in Hanley – while the former is nearing completion, the latter has yet to get started.

Labour's Gareth Snell will be looking to return to parliament having previously served between 2017 and 2019 (Image supplied).

But Gemma Loomes, a politics lecturer at Keele University, does not think levelling up will be a factor for most voters.

Dr Loomes said: "I don't think it will have any impact whatsoever. I think people in Stoke-on-Trent are fairly fed up with being told things are levelling up, that investment is pouring into the local area – unless people can see any tangible benefit to their own lives, and in their own standard of living, then I think it just serves to reinforce the disillusionment that most voters here have with both major parties.

"Stoke-on-Trent Central is the seat in the local area that is most certain to go to Labour. Jo Gideon had such a small majority, it was a natural target for Labour, and they'll be in trouble if they don't take back Stoke-on-Trent Central.

"But the one thing we should pay attention to is the share of vote for Reform. According to the MRP polling, Stoke-on-Trent Central is the seat in the city where they're closest to the Conservatives. It would be a real feather in the cap for Reform if they could finish in second place."

Candidates

• AliRom Alirom – Independent
• Adam Colclough – Green
• Navid Kaleem – Independent
• Chandra Kanneganti – Conservative
• Laura McCarthy – Liberal Democrats
• Andy Polshaw – Independent
• Luke Shenton – Reform UK
• Gareth Snell – Labour

Read more about each candidate here.

2019 result

• Jo Gideon – Conservative – 14,557 (45.4%)
• Gareth Snell – Labour – 13,887 (43.3%)
• Tariq Mahmood – Brexit Party – 1,691 (5.3%)
• Steven Pritchard – Liberal Democrats – 1,116 (3.5%)
• Adam Colclough – Green – 819 (2.6%)