Stoke-on-Trent South was the first seat in the Potteries to be won by the Conservatives, two years before the collapse of the Red Wall in 2019.

Jack Brereton won the seat in the 2017 general election, in one of the few positive results on an otherwise dismal night for Theresa May's Tories.

Mr Brereton subsequently proved it was not a fluke result by retaining the seat with an increased majority of 11,271 in 2019. Stoke-on-Trent South, which includes some of the city's most affluent areas, such as Trentham and Meir Park, was always the Potteries seat more likely to switch to the Conservatives.

And recent boundary changes, which have seen the addition of rural areas like Forsbrook and Barlaston to the constituency, should further increase the number of natural Tory voters. But with the Conservatives trailing well behind Labour in national polls, and with Reform UK eating into their support following the return of Nigel Farage, Mr Brereton will still face a major challenge to hold onto his seat.

Jack Brereton has been the MP for Stoke-on-Trent South since 2017 (Image supplied).

Allison Gardner, a former Newcastle borough councillor and scientific adviser on AI, is standing for Labour, while Michael Bailey, who lived and worked in Stoke-on-Trent for 35 years before relocating to Eccleshall, is the Reform candidate.

The redrawn Stoke-on-Trent South constituency is one of the most varied in Staffordshire, with the candidates having to appeal to voters in both urban Longton, where the issues will be similar to those in other parts of Stoke-on-Trent, as well as people in the seat's extensive rural hinterland.

Gemma Loomes, a politics lecturer at Keele University, expects the Conservatives to do better in Stoke-on-Trent South compared to the other Potteries seats, but says the party will still struggle to hold onto the constituency, with support for Reform UK potentially being a decisive factor.

Dr Loomes said: "With an 11,000 majority, Jack Brereton really shouldn't lose that seat, but that the polling is showing that he will lose it by a relatively narrow margin. Reform are going to be really significant in Stoke-on-Trent South.

Allison Gardener is standing as a Labour candidate (Image supplied).

"One thing that we absolutely can't say in this election is that anything is safe, that there's any such thing as a majority that means you're guaranteed to win your seat again. We've seen with recent by-elections, swings have been absolutely enormous. An 11,000 vote majority means absolutely nothing going into these elections.

"Stoke-on-Trent South is the seat where the Conservatives will be most confident about retaining, but there's no such thing as a safe majority."

Stoke-on-Trent South candidates

• Michael Bailey – Reform UK
• Jack Brereton – Conservative
• Allison Gardner – Labour
• Asif Mehmood – Independent
• Carla Parrish – Independent
• Alec Sandiford – Liberal Democrats
• Peggy Wiseman – Green

Read more about the candidates here.

2019 result in Stoke-on-Trent South

• Jack Brereton – Conservative – 24,632 (62.2%)
• Mark McDonald – Labour – 13,361 (33.7%)
• Rosalyn Gordon – Liberal Democrats – 1,611 (4.1%)