Reform UK are on course to make 'substantial gains' in Staffordshire's local elections next month, according to a new poll.

YouGov's latest MRP model for the local elections across the West Midlands shows Reform with double digit leads in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Tamworth and Cannock Chase.

The model has Reform polling an estimated 35 per cent of the vote in Newcastle, with Labour and the Green Party each on 20, and the ruling Conservatives slipping to fourth place with 19 per cent.

YouGov is predicting even bigger leads for Reform in Cannock Chase and Tamworth, where the model has them winning 45 and 43 per cent of the vote respectively, bigger vote shares than anywhere else in the West Midlands.

While the MRP model does not include seat projections, the predicted vote shares would probably translate into big gains for Reform on all three councils, with losses for the Conservatives and Labour.

All 44 seats on Newcastle Borough Council will be contested in the all-out elections on May 7, with 23 seats needed for a majority.

The traditional big two parties dominated the last election in Newcastle in 2022. The Conservatives retained their majority on the borough council with 49.5 per cent of the vote, while Labour got 46.8 per cent.

YouGov's model suggests a very different result in the borough this time, with both Reform and the Greens potentially making major gains, and the Conservatives losing their majority.

advertisement

The MRP predicts a close contest between Labour, the Greens and the Conservatives for second place in Newcastle. But the Greens are only fielding candidates for 21 of the 44 seats, which will limit their overall vote share.

While Reform look set for even bigger gains in Cannock Chase and Tamworth, the party will be unable to secure overall majorities on either council, as only a third of their seats will be contested on May 7.

Labour currently controls both authorities but YouGov is predicting the party's vote share will fall to just 17 per cent in Cannock Chase and 19 per cent in Tamworth.

MRP, which stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification, is a statistical modelling technique which combines a large poll with other sources of information such as census data to estimate local levels of support for parties.

YouGov's MRP for the West Midlands local elections uses data from 2,034 adults across the relevant council areas, who were polled between 27 March and 27 April.

The pollster says that the central story of the projections is one of 'substantial gains' for Reform UK, while Labour are set for 'seismic losses' and the Conservatives on track for 'big drops in support everywhere'.

These elections come a year after Reform UK one a historic landslide victory in the Staffordshire County Council elections.

YouGov notes that the MRP projects a range of outcomes, with higher and lower estimates for each party, reflecting the uncertainty of the model. Reform's estimated vote share in Newcastle ranges from a low of 24 per cent to a high of 46 per cent, meaning there could be a closer contest in the borough.

advertisement