Support for Reform UK is surging in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire, according to a new poll – but could this help Labour win more seats here?

A new MRP poll – the first to be conducted since Nigel Farage returned as leader of Reform UK – suggests that Labour is now leading in all but one seat in Staffordshire, with the increase in Reform's support coming largely at the expense of the Conservatives.

MRP, which stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification, is a new type of poll which takes into account demographic data such as age and income levels to predict support for different parties in individual seats. The new Survation MRP, based on a survey of 42,269 people, suggests that Labour is now leading in every seat in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire apart from Kingswinford and South Staffordshire – with Reform mostly taking votes away from the Conservatives.

The poll suggests Labour is leading in all but one seat in Staffordshire (Nub News).

For example, the MRP estimates that Reform's vote share in the Staffordshire Moorlands has risen to 25 per cent, just behind the Conservatives who are on 27.7 per cent, with Labour now well ahead on 38.4 per cent. The poll says that Reform are also close to pushing the Tories into third place in Stoke-on-Trent Central.

According to the MRP, the Staffordshire seat where Reform are closest to winning is Cannock Chase, where they are in second place, just 1.2 percentage points behind Labour.

Phil Catney, senior lecturer in politics at Keele University, says the poll ought to be taken with a large pinch of salt – he rejects its prediction that Labour could win in such a safe Conservative seat as Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge, where Reform are not even standing. But he believes that the main impact of the rise in support for Reform will be to make things more difficult for the embattled Conservative Party.

Dr Catney said: "Support for Reform UK has increased by around five per cent since Nigel Farage took over as leader. But parties like Reform UK are punished by the current voting system. Their support isn't concentrated enough, so their votes aren't going to translate into lots of seats in Parliament. That's why Mr Farage and Caroline Lucas of the Green Party were calling back electoral reform back in 2015.

"In Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire the effect of Reform will be to make the Conservatives less competitive in some seats. In a seat like Stoke-on-Trent Central it won't make a difference – Labour should win there anyway. But in Stoke-on-Trent South, [Conservative candidate] Jack Brereton would probably prefer it if Reform wasn't standing. And in the Staffordshire Moorlands, if you took Reform away, it would be a lot more comfortable for Karen Bradley.

Nigel Farage is the current leader of Reform UK (Wiki Commons).

"I think turnout will be key though. A lot of people might be saying that they will vote for Reform now, but will they actually bother to turn up and vote on polling day?"

Dr Catney explained that over the last two decades, parties outside the political mainstream, such as Ukip and the BNP, have seen success in North Staffordshire, as Labour's grip on the area has weakened – although this success has usually been shortlived.

He added: "I think a lot of voters have now crossed the Rubicon and realised that they can vote differently to how they've voted in previous elections. That makes things more unpredictable here.

"Reform might win one or two seats in the general election, and they could come second in some seats locally. But unless they electoral system changes, I can't see them breaking the duopoly of the two main parties. Apart from the SNP in Scotland, the last time that happened was when Labour overtook the Liberals in the 1920s."

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